02-18 13:23 - '**Real-time analysis of the 2018 Crypto Crash — PART 3** ____ / [link] / Since bouncing from exactly 6000 (Bitfinex), the market has staged a 30% rally from the lows. This is thus far the largest rally since the downtren...' by /u/12345abcde00001 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 1-11min
''' Real-time analysis of the 2018 Crypto Crash — PART 3 [link]1 Since bouncing from exactly 6000 (Bitfinex), the market has staged a 30% rally from the lows. This is thus far the largest rally since the downtrend sell-off leg that started on 20-JAN-2018. There were two bounces within the downtrend that began on 20-JAN-2018; i.e. as follows: 1.23-JAN-2018 to 28-JAN-2018: 22% bounce 2.02-FEB-2018 to 03-FEB-2018: 19% bounce Given the current bounce from the 6000 lows has now exceeded the average 20% bounce size, it may suggest that the downtrend which began on 20-JAN-2018 is now complete; and by extension, it may suggest a completed wave structure which has ended the first leg of the crash. The expectation would be a Primary degree b-wave bounce which may retrace up to 38.2% of the Primary a-wave decline which began on 06-JAN-2018. However, there are previous levels of support which may serve as resistance as follows: 1.9350: approx previous line of support/resistance. 2.9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement level of entire market. 3.10298: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018 Any one of the aforementioned levels may serve as targets for the bounce, with the average being 9865. However, exuberance may propel towards the psychological 10000 given the proximity. Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, Robert Prechter: "b-waves — b-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often 'unconfirmed' by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by c-wave. If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'there is something wrong with this market', chances are it's a b-wave." Speculative and idealised Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure, not time: [link]2 [link]3 [link]4 No change to current outlook. Quick guesswork would suggest... —First leg of the bounce could complete at around the first support/resistance area near approx 9350 (Bitfinex). —Then a possible pullback to approx 7600-8000. —Followed by a resumption of the bounce towards 10000, or 9865 on average. A potential roadmap for le weekend; indicative of price and structure, not time... [link]5 [link]6 After rallying 55% from the 6000 (Bitfinex) lows in just 4 days, the market has been drifting sideways for 4 days. The sideways wander could either suggest that the first leg of the rally is complete, and a retracement is currently underway. Or, the market is consolidating in preparation to breakout and resume the move higher. Taking out 8950 (Coinbase) and 9000 (Bitfinex) to the upside would confirm the rally is resuming. However for now, weakening price action appears to be favoring a retracement. A typical retracement ought to be around 50% which is at 7482 (Coinbase) and 7538 (Bitfinex). At 7599 (Bitfinex), represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire Bitcoin market. Given the aforementioned criteria, the following short position has been ordered: BTC/USD (COINBASE) OPEN: 8600 CLOSE: 7482 STOP: 8950 RISK: 4% REWARD: 13% Afterwards, the expectation would be for the market to resume the Primary degree b-wave bounce, which may retrace up to 38.2% of the Primary a-wave decline which began on 06-JAN-2018. The following Fibonacci levels may serve as target areas of where the rally may conclude towards the psychological 10000 level, Bitfinex prices:
9350: approx previous line of support/resistance.
9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement level of entire Bitcoin market.
10298: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018
[link]7 [link]8 [link]9 Market breakout to the upside, the rally resumes. The following levels may serve as target areas of where the rally may conclude towards the psychological 10000 level, Bitfinex prices:
9350: approx previous line of support/resistance.
9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement level of entire Bitcoin market.
10298: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018
Price action has already reached the first resistance level. The average of the other two Fibonacci levels is 10122. Previous short position closed at a 4% loss. Long position opened with the following parameters: BTC/USD (BITFINEX) OPEN: 9000 CLOSE: 10122 STOP: 8313 RISK: 7.6% REWARD: 12.5% [link]10 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Recommencing? [link]11 [link]12 From the 6000 (Bitfinex) lows set on 06-FEB-2018, Bitcoin has rallied +70% taking out the psychological $10,000 level. The 10-day bounce has been fairly broad-based across the majority of the top 10 marketcap cryptocurrencies which have been partaking in the rally. Barring any wave extensions and subdivisions, there now appears enough waves to suggest the rally is complete. Price action seems to have found resistance just shy of 10298, which represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018. Preliminary weakening price action suggests the rally is complete; and next leg of the bear market, the second crash wave, may be commencing. In regards to the psychological state of mind: Taking out 8000 would reaffirm the ‘fear’ phase. Taking out the 6000 lows would represent the ‘capitulation’ stage —where mass media hysterics peak and exchange outages occur. The 78.6% retracement of the entire market at 4257 begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs. From a political and socionomic standpoint, the following events (termed as “FUD” by millennials) may begin to unravel during the second leg of the bear market: —Further laws/bans/restrictions upon cryptocurrencies invoked by countries/governments, calling for tighter regulation and fraud prevention: positive rulings, but perceived as negatives. —Prolonged exchange outages preventing deposits/withdrawals and management of positions. —Exposure and collapse of further Ponzi schemes. —Majority of Altcoins currently under $2,000,000,000 market capitalization becoming extinct. —Mergers & acquisitions of crypto companies in the endeavour to survive. —Individual bankruptcies and suicides. Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value ([link]13 ). Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019. Given the aforementioned criteria, 2 long-term short positions have been ordered with exact stops, but varying target limits: —One with a target profit at 4257 which represents 78.6% retracement of the entire market; and, —One with no target, i.e. an open-ended short position to ride the bear market. BTC/USD (BITFINEX) OPEN: 9850 CLOSE: 4257 STOP: 10271 RISK: 4.3% REWARD: 57% If 10271 is taken out to the upside, it would suggest further wave subdivisions, and the rally is extending. The next upside resistance is around 10926 where the first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-10926). Esoteric footnote: The first leg of the cryptocurrency bear market began on 17-DEC-2017, during a New Moon and leading up to the New Year. Should the second leg of the cryptocurrency bear market be commencing as of 16-FEB-2018, it would do so under a New Moon leading up to the Chinese New Bear. Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure, not time: [link]14 [link]15 [link]16 The Rally Resumes [link]17 The market has broken out to the upside and taken out what was assumed to be the end of the bear market rally at 10271 (Bitfinex). Since the breakout from 10271, a subdivision and extension of the waves, the market has further rallied an additional 8% which has recovered the 4% loss from the previous mentioned short position. From the 6000 lows, the market has now staged a 90% gain. The first upside resistance at 10926 where the first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) equalling the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-10926), has now been surpassed —quite a rally. Next areas of Fibonacci resistance clusters as follows: @11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017 @11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018 @11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652). Any of the above levels may serve to end the bear market rally, with the average being at 11528. At time of writing, taking out the low of 10522 would be the first indication to suggest the rally losing momentum. At which price, a second attempt short position would be placed with a stop at the previous swing high. [link]18 Retry Short [link]19 BTC/USD (BITFINEX) OPEN: 10522 CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended) STOP: 11250 RISK: 7% REWARD: 60% [link]20 ''' Context Link Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: 12345abcde00001 1: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg29778823#msg29778823 2: https://i.imgur.com/fZkBsRM.png 3: https://i.imgur.com/thk6hWP.png 4: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30036363#msg30036363 5: https://i.imgur.com/QwkIMbM.png 6: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30237047#msg30237047 7: https://i.imgur.com/LgdJaSX.png 8: https://i.imgur.com/YL7d6Fh.png 9: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30273641#msg30273641 10: https://i.imgur.com/2o9heqy.png 11: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.0 12: https://redd.it/7ptsg3 13: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes 14: https://i.imgur.com/PH7OOaz.png 15: https://i.imgur.com/M9POoE2.png 16: https://i.imgur.com/ryIsVQs.png 17: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30512368#msg30512368 18: https://i.imgur.com/azjV7Yg.png 19: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30521817#msg30521817 20: https://i.imgur.com/XqyBEK1.png
(NB: typos mine; crappy OCR software. If anyone wants to see the Eliott Wave he's discussing and I'll make it available.) Bitcoin Bubble or Bitcoin Breakthrough? How about both? by Elliott Prechter December 20, 2013 in the Elliott Wave Theorist EWT discussed Bitcoin for the first time in August 2010, when the currency traded at six cents. As far as we know, EWI was the first financial publisher to discuss it. Bitcoin was unknown to the general public and off private investors’ radar. Even the earliest adopters did not take it as seriously as they should have. The most notable example of this is the man who paid 10,000 BTC for a pizza. This pizza purchase is now famous (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=l37.0), and many continue to track its price in USD terms via the “Bitcoin Pizza Index," which recently hit an all-time high of over S12 million. Fast forward to today, and the currency is regularly featured in financial news and social media. Bitcoin Magazine has become popular, Congress is holding hearings on the currency, Germany has defined its role in finance, China is ruling on its legality, and the business world is adopting it. The most prominent business to embrace Bitcoin is Virgin Galactic, one of the many creations of billionaire Richard Branson (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101220710). EWT readers were prepared for all this. When Bitcoin was still in the shadows, the August 2012 issue said,
Presuming bitcoin succeeds as the world’s best currency-and I believe it will-it should rise many more multiples in value over the years. -EWT, August 2012
The big question on the minds of investors is not what Bitcoin has achieved, but should they buy Bitcoins now? It’s amusing that so many people ignored Bitcoin upon hearing about it in 20 1 0, but now that its price has gone up 20,000 times, they want to invest. Notwithstanding the currency’s potential, this shift in attitude is a signal saying now is not the time to buy. Let’s look at four areas of evidence: 1) Optimism is off the charts. Past issues of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast discussed people selling their homes and borrowing money to invest in Bitcoins. That was near the peak of wave Now the desire to buy has grown even more extreme. Bloggers are calling for Bitcoin to reach S1 million. . .soon. One young investor borrowed a million dollars from his father and without his knowledge invested it in Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=359228.0). The other day I walked into a convenience store wearing a Bitcoin T-shirt, and the owner asked me if he should invest now. I felt like I was living in 1929. 2) Investors have recently been rushing to buy a rash of 95 (at last count; see https://bitcointalk. org/index.php?topic=l34179.0) new clones of Bitcoin that have recently emerged: Litecoin, Namecoin, Zerocoin, BBQCoin, PPcoin, PrimeCoin, NovaCoin, FeatherCoin, TerraCoin, Devcoin, Megacoin, Mincoin, DigitalCoin, Anoncoin, Worldcoin, Freicoin, IxCoin... and more. (That they are clones is obvious from the lack of imagination in naming.) This rush of clones is reminiscent of the South Sea bubble of 1720 and the dot-com mania of 1999, when shares of zero-profit, copycat companies (and even fake ones) sold like hotcakes. Virtually every week now, the Bitcoin code is forked into a new coin that investors bid up. lt’s as if buyers feel the world will run out of cryptocurrency, which in fact is infinitely and freely duplicable. 3) The Elliott wave pattern from Bitcoin’s inception shows five waves up. The December ll Short Term Update noted that a major top was potentially in place: The peak [in Bitcoin] came 10 days after U.S. officials, ranging from an assistant attorney general with the Department of Justice to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, “spoke approvingly of the potential of virtual currencies." So, here again, the government is getting on board at the very tail end ofa long rise. Since we posted that comment, Bitcoin has fallen an additional 40%, bringing it down nearly 60% from its all-time high. Will this prove to be just another brief, sharp correction or something larger? Take a look at the completed impulse pattern shown in Figure 3. The structure begins very near the inception of the currency three-plus years ago, when it was selling for a penny. Notice that wave @ is a triangle (see text, p.49), which typically comes in the fourth-wave position. Wave a thrust, carried to the all-time high of S 1242 on November 29. The reversal from that point should mark the start of the largest bear market to date in the currency. This forecast is in tune with the anticipated bear market in the broader stock averages, which have strongly correlated with Bitcoin’s pattern. The chart is in log scale to show the returns one would have achieved in each impulse leg of the pattern. Wave Q) achieved a stunning 3 19ox gain. Wave ® achieved 59.3% (a Fibonacci 3/5) of the gain of wave Q). Wave ® (measured from the low of wave @) achieved 39.3% (a Fibonacci 2/5) of the gain of wave (D and 66.3% (a Fibonacci 2/3) of the gain of wave Therefore, while each upward move has been large, each successive wave has been decelerating in log terms relative to past waves, in each case by a Fibonacci multiple. Also notice that Bitcoin trades more like a commodity than a stock, with its blow-off tops and extended fifih waves. Most of the gain since early 20 12 has been within (5) of ® and the final wave all of which is probable retracement territory. 4) Most people involved in this mania seem oblivious to Bitcoin’s fundamentals. In my experience, raising these issues publicly earns scorn for spreading “FUD.” But there is a good reason-now widely ignored-that Bitcoin is beta software. Our August 2010 piece explained how Bitcoin operates, but it’s worth revisiting some details to understand just how out-of-touch investor expectations are with the reality of Bitcoin technology. Specifically, let's examine the limitations of Bitcoin’s blockchain. The blockchain is the heart of Bitcoin. In its simplest form, the blockchain is a public ledger of all transactions that happen in the Bitcoin network. Each block is composed of individual records that track the ownership of each coin. The transactions “fit” together cryptographically. A block is created about once every 10 minutes by the network. Each block is then cryptographically linked to the previous blocks in the chain, forming a history of all transactions that-to Bitcoin’s credit-cannot be forged. To the extent that Bitcoin currency is real, it could be said that the blockchain is the Bitcoin currency. Yet the core problem with the blockchain is that it grows over time and must be shared by every fiill Bitcoin node. Today it is nearing 13 GB in size. Now, 13 GB doesn't sound too large, but at the current rates of exponential growth the blockchain is projected to become over a terabyte in size in just three years. What's more, the amount of accompanying data required to handle just a fraction of Visa-level traffic would overwhelm even the fastest Internet connections. This technical hurdle makes the “Bitcoin is going to a million” commentary seem premature. The hope for Bitcoin’s future lies in its open-source nature, allowing it to be improved, and Moore’s Law. Moore’s Law is colloquially used to signify the exponential increases in computer-hardware efficiency over time, including network capacity. But Moore’s law-which calls for a doubling of computer speed every two years-has hit a snag in recent years: the rate of improvement in performance has dramatically slowed, causing many experts to call for the end of the operation of Moore’s law. (For the record, Moore’s Law was never intended to refer to computer hardware performance, but the media have confused the term to the point where it is now generally used in this context. Originally, it was intended to refer to the increase in the number of transistors that are packed into microchips.) The past four years have been an exciting ride for Bitcoin. But the evidence says the Bitcoin bull market is done for now. It would be best to put Bitcoin out of your mind for the duration of the deflationary wave that is curling toward the financial world. Due to the psychology surrounding Bitcoin, as well as its correlation with the stock indices, it is too risky to buy now. Due to its open-source nature, however, Bitcoin’s infrastructure should continue to improve over the years. For the long run, I agree with Roger Ver, the CEO of memory dealers and one of Bitcoin’s earliest adopters, who recently said, “It is just getting started." But one could have said that about the U.S. stock market in 1966. It would have been visionary only if you were patient and willing to hold through a very deep valley. Our position is that Bitcoin will never again sell for 6 cents, as it did when EWT first wrote it up. But there will be another time to buy it for relative peanuts alongside stocks, real-estate, gold and silver. When the time comes, no one will be interested. Elliott Prechter's primary task at EWI is working on EWA VES, our in-house artificial intelligence softwarefor analyzing Elliott waves.
In the past year, bitcoin – a digital cryptocurrency with no physical backing that can be sent electronically from one user to another – has risen in value more than 1,400%. Elliott Prechter, Head of Computer Analysis at Elliott Wave International, recommended bitcoin to subscribers when it was at 6 cents. The day before, Elliott Prechter, Head of Computer Analysis at Elliott Wave International, told Newsmax this: Elliott Prechter: I Wouldn't Touch Bitcoin, Risk of Collapse Too Big. Thursday, 21 Dec 2017 10:38 AM "We provided the first financial publication in the world that discussed bitcoin when it traded at 6 cents in 2010. Elliott Prechter, head of computer analysis at Elliott Wave International. Elliott Prechter’s fascination with technology led him to attend MIT in 2002 and ultimately to join Microsoft in 2006. Prechter has been tracking and writing about Bitcoin since September 2010 when it was trading a 6 cents a pop. Prechter doesn't think Bitcoin tax dodgers are a big problem - at least not yet. "The price activity and manic sentiment that led to present prices have dwarfed even the Tulip mania of nearly 400 years ago," wrote Elliott Prechter, author of The Elliott Wave Newsletter” last July. "The success of Bitcoin has spawned 800-plus clones (alt-coins) and counting, most of which are high-tech, pump-and-dump schemes…
In Every Bear Market, One Asset Always Surges in Value – This One Elliott Wave International
PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION!! This is a Bitcoin Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Video On Bitcoin's Price Today #bitcoin #elliottwave #cryptocurrency You can join the Private Trading Discord at Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis - Duration: 24:42. NewWave Traders 580 views. ... BITCOIN UPDATE! price Update, Time Analysis, momentum analysis , Elliott Wave 6-23-2020 - Duration: 28:26. Robert Prechter is a genius way ahead of his time. Prechter took an old discarded theory, by R N Elliott, saw it for it brilliance, and extrapolated from it The Socionomic Theory of Finance. Live Bitcoin Trading With DeriBot on Deribit DeriBot Backup 433 watching Live now Smart Trades Update 4.9.12 S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasuries, Euro, Fractals, Elliott Wave Technicals - Duration: 10:42. Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International and publisher of the Elliott Wave Theorist for about 30 years says that the US dollar has bottomed and that stocks and commodities will decline.