TKC Stock Price and Chart — NYSE:TKC — TradingView

Why doesn't Bitcoin to a "decimal re-valuation" to move the decimal to the right to make Bitcoin numbers make "sense" (similar to a stock split, I guess). What would it take to make this happen?

Its difficult to use Bitcoin when I owe a friend 0.0001478 Bitcoin. But if I owed 14.78 Bitcoin, life would make sense again.
Why can't they simply move the decimal point, and then multiply all current holdings. So for now if I have 5.198394 Bitcoin, after this "stock split" I would have 519,839.40 Bitcoin?
Or, on the other hand, if I currently have 0.00276, after the "stock split" I would have 276.00 Bitcoin, etc.
That would make it seem much more viable as a currency, in my opinion.
submitted by network_noob534 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Daily Discussion, June 14, 2020

Please utilize this sticky thread for all general Bitcoin discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!
If you don't get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.
Join us in the Bitcoin Chatroom!
Please check the previous discussion thread for unanswered questions.
submitted by rBitcoinMod to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

I did it today

I sold. I put my life saving of 56k into spirit RCL, CCL, and Sixflags. I cashed out at $120k. I couldn’t take it any more. I bought bitcoin in 2017 and it went 4x and I held. I went from 65k to what is worth 15k now. This feels like 2017 bitcoin. These numbers don’t add up to the value of the stocks I held and am happy with my profit. Even finally showed my wife the portfolio balance. I did put everything into JNJ, AMD, AAPL and MSFT.
If my travel stocks double next month I will be happy selling at a profit. I wish you all great success in your picks!
submitted by patrikb2014 to stocks [link] [comments]

‪Masters and Slaves of Money 💰 Wow! Very well written and good perspective. #Bitcoin is the world savior. Question: What roll do the “ALT” coins play? My opinion: Alt’s are pyramid schemes.

submitted by Shenron2020 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Unpopular opinion - the economy has to become dynamic in order for it to have any longevity (and other musings on the progression)

Ain't no one gonna read this but here it goes!
The issue of progression has recently been gaining some traction in the community with Klean and DeadlySlob covering this topic recently.
Now any solution to this has an inherent issue associated with it - it'll be uncomfortable to someone. Whatever is done, it'll negatively affect someone, just by the fact of change alone. You cannot make something better by not changing anything. So anything you do or don't do, you will alienate a portion of your playerbase.
Early/Mid-game vs Late game.
Early and mid game is lauded, late game is considered boring. But why? For startes, firefights last longer, require more skill, movement, tactics and outsmarting your opponent. You value your life, you feel respect even for the shittiest of bullets. You have a feeling that the kill is earned. Guns have tons of recoil so you need to pick your shots. It's... I know it's illegal... but it's fun.
Late game however is plagued with a number of issues. Gear gets dominated by very similar loadouts that cover approx 10% of the gear in the game. There's nowhere to progress as you've reached the ceiling. The excitement from killing a kitted player diminishes as time goes as the economy saturates. People start being picky with their loot and only the good stuff brings any sort of satisfaction. The hideout provides a steady, predictable stream of income.
You let it run long enough it becomes a mindless PVP battleground.
Side note - the black and white fallacy of the makeup of the community.
Casuals vs hardcores. Rats vs Chads. Whenever a discussion pops up this dichotomy is always present. "Feature X hurts casuals but doesn't bother hardcore gamers playing 8h a day". No. Like anything in life the population of EFT is subject to the bellcurve distribution. There are hardcore sweaties grinding out the kappa within a week and there are also sunday gamers. Then there's everything else in between. Let's keep that in mind.
You don't need to be a streamer or play the game as a full time job to make money. We have a discord for 30+ yr old gamers with families and all of us were swimming in roubles and gear after 3 months of the past wipe. Sure it takes us longer than streamers, but still.
The meta
Taking weapons as an example. Different items have different stats (recoil, ergonomics, etc), some are obviously better than others which obviously makes them more sought after. There are also different ammo types for every caliber. Then lastly we come to the guns which directly tie into the first point, by their base stats and how much those can be brought down/up by attachments.
If you have a plethora of items that have different stats, there's sure to be an optimal loadout. If that optimal loadout is always available at an attainable price to the point where you can run it consistently, then there's really no reason to run anything less. This is the meta and at the moment it's basically a synonym for best in slot.
Appealing to a greater good such as gameplay variety is in vain because people will do everything to put themselves in the best possible position. If that means running whatever flavor of meta weapon that is - VAL, M4, FAL alongside top tier lvl 5 or 6 armor over and over and over and over again, so be it. We all know that's not the only way to get by in EFT, but all else being equal - top gear puts you on equal footing at minimum.
Trash contextualizes treasure. A rare item is not rare if everyone is running it. It's a normal item.
Gear minmaxing combined with a ceiling in progression create a situation where the game becomes stale, people get bored and we get chants for a wipe to releave the pressure.
Wipes however, even at set intervals, are not the solution. Every wipe, in the absence of something fundamentally new, gives you (rapidly) diminishing returns. Doing the same quests over and over is an absolute drag. It's my 7th wipe and this time around I've really hit a brick wall with them. Now imagine doing them every 3 months. Maybe just do an inventory and trader level wipe? Yeah, that's just skipping one part of it and arriving at the same point but even quicker, considering how quickly you can make money.
The endpoint being - having enough money to run anything you want all the time without the fear of getting broke. Or in the abstract, having a big enough cushion to make any blow from a bad streak become inconsequential.
All of that is just a perpetuation of the same sawtooth progression. Grind, saturate, wipe, grind, saturate, wipe.
Side note - persistent character vs wiped character
I know there have been talks about having two characters - one persistent that's not wiped and one seasonal that is. On paper this might look like a good solution, but there are some problems.
POE players would have to chip in, but I reckong, that in a way this might become a form of matchmaking - the persistent character would be a mode for "sunday" players, while the wiped one for the sweats. I mean, maybe that's the way to go, but if the game is to gave any longevity, the persistent character will eventually face the same issues as the current game, it'll just take longer to develop.
Unpopular opinion - The economy is just a set of time and effort gated unlocks.
There have been multiple ideas to prolong a wipe, but in my view the fundamental issue with those is that they're based off the same linear progression - start from scratch and acumulate wealth until saturation. Some of these ideas include restricting labs till level X, locking behind a quest or just disabling it for a month. The problem with these is that it's just delaying the inevitable, while also giving a direct buff to those who get there first as they'll have the place virtually to themselves.
What follows is also the concept of "starting mid wipe", which essentially means that the gear disparity is so big that the further into a wipe, the more difficult it is to catch up. That effort is directly correlated with experience - the more experience you have the easier it is for you to reset or jump in midwipe. Extending a wipe potentially alleviates that by giving people more opportunity to catch up, but also pushes away from coming back/into the game if they recognize that it had passed their personal breakpoint where it's too hard / frustrating.
Perpetual mid-game
So out of all of that, a clearer picture emerges. We have to somehow find a solution to always have something to work for, but also not give the impression that you're up against an impenetrable wall.
That means that the game needs to pivot around something colloquially known as mid game. How would we define mid-game? That's another debate, but for the sake of the argument we could define that as something in the range of:
That would be the sort of mean loadout you can run on a consistent basis and you'd see the majority of the time. From the sentiment across the community, this seems to be the most enjoyable state of the game, where the sweetspot is in terms of protection and vulnerability, but allowing a lot of headroom for both variety and
Now we must have to remember that there's a number of changes inbound that will alleviate some of the issues:
But those are sill far on the horizon.
The uncomfortable reality is that in order to truly balance that you have only a few choices. One is to go down the route of typical FPS tropes where every weapon type is perfectly balanced (i.e. shotguns powerfull but limited range, smg's low recoil, high ROF but weaker, dmrs powerful but high recoil and low ROF, etc). I don't think this will be ever a thing in the game.
Another one is to make attachments roughly equal and just attribute the differences to the tacticool visual factor. This would be realistic in a way, but would take away from the game.
The last one is to price them out. Literally. I'm of the unpopular opinion that endgame should not be a stage, it should be a state.
Dynamic pricing
I know I know, last time it failed spectacularly. However, that was a different flea market and the implementation was poorly thought out. Since it didn't have a pivot point to relate to it caused widespread inflation of even the most basic items and was prone to manipulation.
However the concept in principal has proven itself to work - M995 was essentially priced out of existence and forced people to look for alternatives like M855A1 or M856A1 or different calibers alltogether. Even the sweaties of sweats got a bit excited when they killed someone with 3 60rounders filled with M995. See where I'm going with this?
The execution was poor and poorly thought out.
But how about a different implementation? Adjust the prices based on how much an item is (or is not) bought compared to other items of the same item type. Most popular items' price (of a specific category) increases, while the least popular one decreases.
This could also be coupled with (or as an alternative) an additional rarity factor which would sort of specify how volatile the price is. Continuing the ammo example M995 would have the highest rarity factor and would be very prone to price increases, while the likes of M855 would be considered common and have a much more stable price.
Obviously this would be subject to long term trends and would not happen overnight. But the main aim is to dynamically scale the economy to the general wealth of the playerbase around a certain pivot point which we established before as the mid-game.
This would be a quite significant blow to the uberchads as they would unironically struggle to maintain a profit from their runs. And yes, some of them would still probably be able to pull this off, but remember what we said about the bell curve? It's just about making them so insignificant in the global player pool that they'd be a very rare occurance.
Global item pools
This idea has been floated around by Nikita some time ago but we have no ETA on this. In short - for some items, there is only a set amount that is present in circulation. For example there are only X amount of ReapIR's in the entire economy - spawns, traders, player stashes. If everyone hoards them in their stashes - thats where they'll remain. They don't spawn on maps, they're not sold on traders. Only until they're lost they get reinjected into the item pool.
This idea should be reserved only for the absolute top tier OP items. Something that you'd get all giddy if found/looted and you'd contemplate taking it out.
Side note, the X amount should scale to the active playerbase, which could be something like a weekly or biweekly moving average of people actively playing the game in a set period.
This one is a bit controversial but also attributes to some of the in game inflation and gear recirculation. If you run a large squad, even if one of you dies, there's a high chance someone will survive and secure others' gear. And even if all of you die, something's bound to come back.
This might be a bit controversial, but I think group size should have a debuff to the chance of getting your gear back the higher the bigger your squad size, for example an incremental 10% chance for each additional squadmate.
Hideout adjustments
Right now fuel consumption is static no matter how much stuff is going on. What if the fuel consumption rate was tied to the size of your bitcoin farm and the amount of crafting going on.
Additionally hideout appliances could wear out and require maintenance, which would grant them performance debuffs like increased crafting time.
Dynamic stocks.
Right now stocks are predictable. You have the same amount of items at a set interval. Things like traders missing some items or not getting a restock due to broken supply lines, which can be cheekily tied into...
Dynamic global events/quests
Such as as getting rid of scavs on a particular location to remove the roadblock. These might be done per player or as a global event where everyone has to chip in.
The subject is difficult and solutions are not simple, but what I do know is that eventually Tarkov will have settle into an identity which will come with a sacrifice either at the expense of vision or mainstream popularity.
Thank you for coming to my TEDTalk. I'd like to give a heartfelt thank you to the 5 people that read this wall of text.
submitted by sunseeker11 to EscapefromTarkov [link] [comments]

01-25 22:13 - 'If anyone wants a free stock you can dm me your email/phone number and by using the referral code we both can get a free stock which could include Apple, Facebook, google etc..!!!! / ^ For anyone without a robinhood account yet' by /u/sluggz50 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 70-80min

If anyone wants a free stock you can dm me your email/phone number and by using the referral code we both can get a free stock which could include Apple, Facebook, google etc..!!!!
^ For anyone without a robinhood account yet
Context Link
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: sluggz50
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

[Daily Discussion] Monday, March 23, 2020

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:
Thread guidelines:
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submitted by AutoModerator to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Take all the profits, look at SDOW

Anyone else anticipating another big dip? Sold most of my gains Friday. Considering selling the rest Monday morning and loading up on SDOW. This rally has been crazy and I’m expecting a correction. Looking for other opinions!
submitted by BraziBros to stocks [link] [comments]

FI on my birthday!

I did it today. On my 47th birthday, I reached $3 million in cash & investments, a paid off house & 2 cars. I have reached my FI target of $100k @ 3.3% SWR. I knew it was going to be close with the markets, payday, and my company's equity coming in today.
Plan is to FIRE in 3 months. $3 million was a symbolic number, I could have FIREd 2 months ago at $2.95 million and lived pretty much the same life. However, I am getting another ~$70k in equity in 3 months and would like a bit of a buffer especially with the volatile markets. Also, the plan was to take a nice trip to Europe in August - I don't see that happening.
It is crazy, I know of many people who are laid off, working reduced hours, worried about their job or tapping into debt. And I am making plans to quit working.

Mega edit:
Asset allocation
Cash & short term investments: 25% (increased 10% from equities due to C19)
Employer's Equity: 10%
Equity ETFs: 45% (down 10% - sold in early march, will buy back in later)
Bond ETFs: 10%
Crypto: 10%
Please bring on the flames for timing the market, but I sold early-ish, it helps me sleep at night, and right now I am trying to be more conservative vs. aggressive.
The crypto is a flyer. I bought casino level bitcoin in 2012 at $18, then sold a bunch when it went up to $150. Then bought a bunch more at $1000, and have been selling little bits for a few years. Total investment: $45k, total value sold and still held: $500k. I would like to sell more, but it has a capital gains tax liability, so FIRE with no income next year would help reduce taxes.

About my journey
Grew up middle class. Money was tight from time to time, but I never really saw that.
Part time job when I was 16 for spending cash. Never went into debt. Saved a little.
Went into a good college for STEM, received $8000 total for tuition from family and received a student loan for $1000. Did a few paid internships while in college. Paid off the loan with my first post-school paycheck.
Graduated in the tech industry in 97. Started full time at the last internship. $40k base. Stayed there for 2 more years, increased base by 20%. $48k base. Left (co-worker left and pulled me), for a ~100% increase. $90k base. Stayed there 6 months (dying ship), left for ~10% increase. $100k base. Stayed there for 2 years (all of my managers up to CEO left in 2 weeks), left for a 0% change. $100k base. Stayed there for 1.5 years, was let go, started consulting at +50% (but no benefits). $150k consulting. Consulted for 8 months, left when project was wrapping up for -40% (+10% from previous full time) $110k base. Stayed there for 11 years (company was acquired 3 after years), increased pay by ~20% in 11 years. $133k base. Left for 5% increase. $141k base. Worked there for 6 months (bad fit), left for 5% increase. $150k base. Here now. Making about 4x after 20 years. Did not include any bonus (or not), benefits (health/retirement/etc...) stock options, quality of life, etc..

Current investments
Canadian ETF / funds I invest in in decreasing amounts.
XGRO VCN VXC VAB VT TDB900 TDB902 TDB909 TDB911 Tangerine Balanced (part of emergency fund) TDB661 CDZ

submitted by throwaway_canada1 to financialindependence [link] [comments]

My Provisional List of COVID Anomalies, Red/ False Flags & Clear Indications of Scumbaggery And Scambuggery. LIHOP, MIHOP Or HOAX/SCAM? Def Not As Described. Very Much Updated Since 1st Posting. Please Let Me Know What I’ve Missed Or Add Links. Repost, Due To Strange Disappearance of 90% Of My Post.

My Provisional List of COVID Anomalies, Red/ False Flags & Clear Indications of Scumbaggery And Scambuggery. LIHOP, MIHOP Or HOAX/SCAM? Def Not As Described. Very Much Updated Since 1st Posting. Please Let Me Know What I’ve Missed Or Add Links. Repost, Due To Strange Disappearance of 90% Of My Post.
Not going to add to my existing paranoia by speculating, but here it is updated...
Here’s my Top 22 list of suspicious shenanigans and red flags surrounding the COVID narrative:

  1. The Imperial College Death data - Neil Ferguson and Gates-funded Imperial College, London Model that ‘persuaded’ Johnson and Trump to lockdown. Projected 500K deaths in UK and 2.2m deaths in US, EVEN WITH LOCKDOWN. Less than 10% accuracy but 110% alarmist, and evidence that the coding was deliberately flawed and designed to inflate numbers. Gates funding everyone involved in the staged 'debacle'.
Ferguson, with a terrifyingly consistent track record for hyping minor viruses that fail to transpire into pandemics (Swine Flu, Bird Flu, BSE etc), failing upwards as a ‘safe pair of hands‘.
EDIT: the material below has now disappeared twice, so I’m reposting with the 95% that disappeared some minutes ago....
2) Ferguson’s blasé attitude to his affair during lockdown - clearly not too worried for his lovers’ family, if he genuinely believed COVID was a threat. No "error of judgement", just a man who knew there was nothing to fear.
3) Hospitals cleared of patients in readiness for a pandemic that never came. Desperate for cash, doctors and nurses were financially incentivised to put down patients dying with/ of COVID on death certificates to gain payments. In US $13,000 per patient, and $39,000 per patient on ventilator etc.
Footage of empty hospitals worldwide:
Nurses furloughed, sent home for suspected virus without testing. Nurses - with nothing better to do - on TikTok etc:
Nurses slammed for filming TikTok showing them carrying coronavirus 'body-bag': etc
4) Games played with age and numbers, proof that only the elderly and very sick elderly were dying, but less of pneumonia and flu than in previous years. Median age of 79 in US and 82 in UK. Meanwhile whole country on lockdown.
"The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years (e.g. 86 years in Sweden) and only about 4% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality."
(table from 2/7 down the page...)
5) When this became apparent, initial scare stories in press about children dying of virus, later proven to have no merit, just to ensure the hysteria was generalised. Meanwhile, probability of a child dying from the 'virus' is 35m to 1.
"The second row shows that 2 deaths have been recorded among over 7 million school children aged between 5 and 14 (around 1 in 3.5 million), an extremely low risk — although additional deaths may be reported following coroners’ investigations. Over the last five years, there has been an average of 94 deaths registered over this 9-week period for those aged 5–14, and so the 2 Covid deaths represents only 2% of the normal risk faced by this group. That is, whatever average risk they would have faced in these 9 weeks if Covid had never existed — a risk which was extraordinarily low — was increased by Covid by only 2%."
6) The ludicrous claim that they had never considered economic and psychological DEATH toll of lockdown.
There was a press conference in June on BBC, where they said "saving lives" from the virus was considered more important. Hard to believe, but I can't find the footage yet...
"One of the most consistent themes that emerges from the minutes of SAGE meetings is how the Government repeatedly expected its scientists to account for the economic impact of lockdown restrictions – even though SAGE was not doing any economic modelling."
7) Doctors globally openly being told they can save paperwork and earn money by basing cause of death on ASSUMPTION of COVID, based on the vaguest of pretexts and symptoms.
Also, from the UK...Health Secretary Matt Hancock calls for urgent review into coronavirus death data in England.
It follows confirmation from Public Health England that reported deaths may have included people who tested positive months before they died.
8) The propaganda campaign against any form of alternative to vaccine (Vitamin C and D, African cures, HCQ etc)
“The Government’s leading body for Covid19 drug trials – led by the controversial character Professor Peter Horby – Oxford’s Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Global Health and heading the vaccine programme - stands accused of grossly misleading negative trial results for the coronavirus management drug Hydroxychloroqhine. (Conflict of interest, surely?)
The lead story in today’s France Soir – a long-respected and unaligned French daily – presents compelling evidence to suggest that the Whitehall/Cabinet Covid19 “advice” team cannot be trusted….and raises yet more doubts about BBC complicity in a false Coronavirus narrative.”
http://www.francesoir.fsociete-sante/remdesivir-une-molecule-dinteret-therapeutique-tres-discutable-sur-le-covid-19-partie ( in French)
The [Lancet’s] claim that hydroxychloroquine increases the risk of death in Covid-19 patients has been used by rivals as a stick to beat the US President, who has himself been taking the drug and hailed it a 'game-changer' in the war on coronavirus.
Mounting doubts over the study's reliability culminated yesterday when the authors retracted their study from the Lancet medical journal, whose editorial standards have also been thrown into question.
“The Deputy Chief Investigator of the Recovery Trial, Prof. Martin Landray, gave an interview to France-Soir. What he revealed was quite remarkable.
Firstly, the mortality rate of the hydroxychloroquine patients was a staggering 25.7%.
The recommended hydroxychloroquine dose for an adult in the UK is no more than 200 — 400 mg per day. In France, 1800 mg per day is considered to be lethal poisoning.”
9) The saturation of Gates into the narrative at every level. His hallowed and unquestioned presence in media as expert, the only Moses who can lead us out of this wilderness with his magic potions, release us from our prisons with his benevolence. His financial connections through BMGF to NIH, CDC, WHO, BBC, Guardian, CNN etc and of course every pharmaceutical company in existence....
Amazing Polly (pretty much every video this year):
BBC compromised:

“Transforming lives through media”? Gates and the CIA? Can we give up the pretence that neutral Auntie speaks for - or represents - us and our best interests?

Charities and foundations - without transparency, oversight and apparently universally trusted. Call your genocidal plans ‘charity’ and not only will you look like a philanthrApist, but people will even donate to their own demise.
EDIT: For further information, I just found this webpage:
UK Guardian compromised:
Hear the Guardian is regrettably letting 180 staff go this week. Hopefully BMGF can find them suitable homes...
From the article:
“This story came from a Guardian sub-section called ‘Global Development‘.
But then I came across this 2010 Guardian story about how the Guardian has started up this new ‘Global Development’ site in partnership with… the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
So much information on Gates...almost “paralysed” with possibilities. Ideas?
10) Recent US and UK stories where people clearly dying of other things - cancer, suicide, motorcycle accidents etc are ascribed to COVID. Officially, George Floyd’s death should have been ascribed to COVID, since I believe he tested positive during autopsy. Might have led to a very different world...
HighImpactFix video about case number “massage” and motorcycle anomalies:
11) Recent US and UK stories of the deceitful practices by which:
i) the case numbers are conflated with all death numbers on certain days
ii) Dying "of" vs "with" COVID
iii) anyone who dies after testing positive is a COVID death
iv) cases being reported and subliminally conflated with deaths by the media, when death numbers fell too low to keep the public sufficiently terrified to accept coming measures
v) case numbers merely made up or inflated by a factor of ten, in Florida’s case last week.
Too many to include all here, but the recent Florida 'mistake' is here:
If this is a genuine event, what possible reason would there be to commit fraud in so many ways to keep it looking genuine, besides the need to control demolish the world economy and vaccine-shill?
12) Event 201. Drill gone live. Nuff said.
Amazing Polly:
13) The fact that there have been no surprises at all since the crisis began. Every next step had been telegraphed in the media well in advance. Everything began with the notion that a vaccine would be the only solution and the narrative has remained remarkably consistent to Event201.
14) Even with all of these statistical somersaults, the death numbers this year are not far from what they’ve been in previous years. Pneumonia and flu deaths are suspiciously down.

2020 - 6509 flu deaths in five months (Feb-June)
2020 - 6509 flu deaths in five months (Feb-June)
Compared with:

2019- Flu killed 34,157 - more than twice amount for a similar period of five months this year.
2019 Flu killed 34,157 - more than twice amount for a similar period of five months this year.
15) That in the space of four months, they have managed to capitalise on this crisis and remove so many rights from us permanently. An opportunity for which they’ve been waiting for years, COVID sped up the process and kept us otherwise preoccupied.
Here is my list of achieved or achievable hidden agenda:
In no particular order:
  1. Controlled demolition of the stock market/ global economy. Global reset etc
  2. Transhumanist/ AI rollout (post-human, Gates patents for human batteries linked with cryptocurrency (60606).
  3. Vaccine adulation and promotion (Gates etc promising vaccine = release from captivity - pharmaceutical companies in league with WHO to drum up mandatory sales)
  4. Expediting the climate change agenda, conflating it with the virus as a call for world government and global sustainability.
  5. Plus RFID/ ID2020 tracking through vaccines (mark of the beast, without which no transaction/ employment will be possible)
  6. Demonisation and eradication of cash (total financial dominion)
  7. Mass unemployment and Universal Credit system linked to Social Credit.
  8. Bank (and corporate) bailouts – this time round it looks legitimate and necessary, no public outcry.
  9. Using and conditioning us to the concept of quarantining as a future method of control should there be any hint of unrest.
  10. Cultification of the NHS to the point of a unifying religion (clapping and donations and lionisation of medical staff during what must be the quietest time in their history)
  11. Legitimation of multiculturalism and immigration (race-baiting through NHS and volunteers, #youclapforusnow
  12. A shot in the arm for the MSM and government as a whole: no longer irrelevant and dying, people watching 24-7 since pandemic. Taking attention away from alternative media.
  13. Privatisation of NHS/ public services – corporations will step in to ‘save’ us (public gratitude replacing scepticism)
  14. Makes government look noble and heroic (wartime/ WW2 mentality fostered)
  15. COVID19 as cover story for 5G radiation/ environmental pollution/ vaccine damage etc
  16. Mass Surveillance – using 5G ‘for our safety’ to track and trace
  17. Opportunity to pass draconian laws against human rights (assembly, sectioning, travel, speech)
  18. Social alienation/ conformity as preference/ patriotic duty
  19. Prevention of assembly in order to protest draconian laws
  20. Depopulation in stages (elderly first, then with vaccines and suicides/ bankruptcy etc due to system collapse)
  21. Censorship of social media and social discourse in general
  22. Installation of 5G during lockdown to avoid scrutiny
  23. Effecting the transition of the workplace, shopping district and school to the home, ending community and all nourishing human interactions.
  24. The ‘new normal’ - social revolution and culture creation through social distancing/ queuing for shops/reinvention of the word essential/ mask wearing etc
  25. Destruction of small and medium sized businesses and the high street in general
  26. Fauci’s early dismissive comments about virus, herd immunity and futility of masks, before the script was revised.
”You don’t need a mask.”:
To the NEJM, he described COVID in March as a flu, with similar numbers predicted to suffer.
“WOW! Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May Be Much Closer to a Very Bad Flu”
Why the u-turn? Surely we define our experts by their consistency.
F William Engdahl article:
Christine Grady (Fauci’s wife) and her sinister connections to NIH and Gates:
17) Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and Nadine Dorries - The statistical chances (14%) of three members of the UK Cabinet (made up of 22 people), including the prime minister, actually catching it and one almost dying apparently, right before reversing his decision to let it pass.
A very intentionally dramatic start to our lockdown, announced by Johnson from his "death-bed", ensuring all were in the appropriate state of panic:
"Boris Johnson: Hospital doctors were ready to announce my death"
18) Meanwhile, racism knocks the virus off the front pages and our minds for a few weeks, but we’re meant to go right back to taking it seriously when requested.
19) The many proven fake media stories...of long lines for testing and hospital footage from NY, mannequins in beds etc
20) International care home scandals - Deliberately mandating coronavirus carriers into crowded care homes to bump up death toll and concomitant hysteria, kill off elderly...murder?
"It is remarkable how many deaths during this pandemic have occurred in care homes. According to the Office for National Statistics, nearly 50,000 care home deaths were registered in the 11 weeks up to 22 May in England and Wales — 25,000 more than you would expect at this time of the year. Two out of five care homes in England have had a coronavirus outbreak; in the north-east, it’s half.
Not all these deaths, however, have been attributed to Covid-19. Even when death certificates do mention it, it is not always clear that it is the disease that was the ultimate cause of death..."
"The daughter of a 91-year-old gran who died of Covid-19 she contracted in a care home is demanding to know why her mum was “sacrificed” by ministers.
Retired teacher Anne Duncan died in Edinburgh’s Western General Hospital two days after her family managed to force a move out of the care home in the city where they feared she would die alone.
Her daughter Linda hit out at what she called a “scandalous” policy to release coronavirus patients into care homes and called for her mum’s death to be investigated as part of a wider review."
Also, more than 40% of US ‘virus‘ deaths occur in nursing homes:
21) (thanks to Reddit’s lawofconfusion!) Ventilators - All of the sudden, a clamour for them generated panic demand and buying. Cuomo desperate, while he sat in front of a warehouse wall full of them. Hegelian dialectics at play. Trump apparently withholding, Trump giving them out like Oprah, then the evidence that they were killing most people on them.
“A giant study that examined outcomes for more than 2,600 patients found an extraordinarily high 88% death rate among Covid-19 patients in the New York City area who had to be placed on mechanical devices to help them breathe.”
22) Testing inconsistencies:
Half of CDC Coronavirus Test Kits Are Inaccurate, Study Finds.
”The study's lead author, Sin Hang Lee, MD, director of Milford Molecular Diagnostics Laboratory, found that the testing kits gave a 30 percent false-positive rate and a 20 percent false-negative rate.”
“According to the creator of the PCR test, Kary Mullis himself, it cannot be totally and should never be used as a tool in “the diagnosis of infectious diseases.”
Tanzania scandal and the goat/ papaya ‘positive‘ testing (they had to put in the religious dig as a debunking attempt here, didn’t they?):
Also, this about CT testing irregularities:
Funny how all the “mistakes” err on the side of positive...

submitted by secretymology to conspiracy [link] [comments]

How I plan to identify and sell the top of the next market cycle.

In this post I will share with you some of the strategies I will use to identify the next market cycle top so I can sell for maximum profits (and of course buy back in later in the subsequent bear market!) In the first part of this post I will discuss the resources I will use and in the second part I will discuss tactics in selling and risk management.


As the bull run begins to drag on and the price of ETH starts getting closer and closer to $10k I will begin to start watching many of the data science charts over at Look into Bitcoin. This will not be the only source I will use since there are great custom tools on TradingView too as well as more subjective indicators such as friends and family talking crypto and hearing about crypto again in the mainstream media. I’d also like to note that many of the indicators I will be looking at will be Bitcoin focused despite my ETH centred portfolio. Like it or not, this market is still Bitcoin dominated and despite the many proponents of an ETH flippening (myself included), it is quite likely that we will not see it this cycle due to the macro investing environment favouring assets which are good stores of value to weather the uncertainty. Ultimately, Bitcoin has the best store of value meme in crypto and that will be very powerful in the coming years.
I think it is likely that the time for Ethereum or a network like Ethereum with a yielding asset (ETH under ETH 2.0) and a native economy of DeFi, DApps, NFTs and much more will be once all of the stock market uncertainty is over and investors are ready to take on more risk again. I am of course still expecting Ethereum and altcoins to outperform Bitcoin this cycle. However, I think that Bitcoin losing the number 1 spot will be more likely to happen between 2023 and 2030 rather than in the next 2-3 years. I hope I am wrong though.
While most of the indicators on Looking into Bitcoin are useful, I will list the ones I’ll be focusing on the most here:
And finally my favourite, the Golden Ratio Multiplier. This indicator has been remarkably accurate at predicting tops using the golden ratio (1.6) and the fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21) multiplied by the 350 day moving average. With each market cycle, the 350 day moving average is multiplied by the next number down in the fibonacci sequence. For example, the 2013 peak only just passed above the 350 day moving average multiplied by 8 and the 2017 bull market just touched the 350 day moving average multiplied by 5. So if this indicator is to work in the next cycle, we can expect the price to slightly exceed 3 times the value of the 350 day moving average. This indicator also worked for Ethereum in the 2017 bull run. While there is no graph for it, on the 13th of January, when ETH hit a peak of $1,419, the 350 day moving average was at $270. $270 multiplied by 5 is $1,350. If you sold at $1,350 you sold incredibly close to the top and I don’t think that any macro traders/long term traders would complain about that timing.
I’d like to note that while indicators like the Golden Ratio Multiplier factors in for less explosive growth each cycle, not all of the above indicators do. So be cautious of this when you think the peak is near as it may be closer than you think. In saying that, there is a lot of luck involved so I should also point out that it also might not be closer than you think. However, it would be better to sell before the peak at say $10,000/BTC as of 2017 than to be left holding all of your crypto when the bear market begins since Bitcoin didn’t spend much time above $10,000/BTC after the $20K peak. Ultimately it is up to you to decide your risk appetite and how well you want to try and time the market. For me, I will definitely be on the conservative side so that I don’t miss the boat completely and hopefully I will be able to sell most of my crypto just before we peak rather than afterwards.

Risk Management

Since timing the top requires a lot of luck, a good method of mitigating the risk is to spread out when you sell. I’m going to share with you my personal strategy but I recommend that you create your own strategy or use this as a basis from which you can use to adjust and tweak it to optimally suit your situation. If you have a large stack, you will probably want to sell early since you might not need such spectacular gains to lock in some life changing money. On the other hand, if you have a smaller stack or if you are younger, you can afford to take more risk and might want to try and time the absolute peak a bit better to get that much closer to making some life changing money. Personally, while my stack isn’t very big in dollar terms, it is a significant % of my net worth and so I don’t have a high risk tolerance with it (at least relative to other people in crypto!) For this reason I will be selling a little bit on the early side.
My plan has three pots of crypto. 20% of my crypto I will hold indefinitely since I very strongly believe in the long term prospect of ETH and BTC as investments. This way if I time the markets terribly, I will always have some skin in the crypto game. The second pot of crypto is 40% which I will sell on the way up to take some profits and I don’t intend on putting this money back into crypto. Initially I will be selling very small amounts of this 40% and as the indicators listed above get closer and closer to calling a top, I will sell larger proportions of this crypto. I haven’t set specific target numbers since things change fast in this space and I feel like the best decisions in this case are made in the moment. For example, estimating a market top is hard when it is 2-3 years away, but it is much easier when it is just months or weeks away. Once again, this is just personal preference. Many of you will find that setting targets now makes it easier for you to pull the trigger and take some profits when everyone else is calling $1M BTC while it is at $100K or calling for $100K ETH when the current price might be $10K.
Finally, the last 40% I will sell all at once when I feel like we are at the top and I am confident that the price will be lower a year on from that point in time. With this 40% I will try and buy back during the bear market with the help of many of the same indicators I listed above from Look into Bitcoin. I will also use some indicators which I didn’t mention above since some are better designed at identifying market bottoms. My goal is to be able to buy back the number of BTC and ETH I held before I sold anything with this 40% (plus the 20% I didn’t sell). This is a big ask but it is better in life to set hard goals that seem unattainable or unrealistic than it is to set easy goals.
To summarise my portfolio strategy, 20% of my portfolio is an indefinite hold, 40% I will sell on the way up and I do not intend on buying back into crypto with this money so I can avoid being over-exposed to crypto. The last 40% I will use to try and sell the top and buy the bottom.

Closing Notes

As a closing note I would like to say that it will be important to be aware of the power of greed and FOMO. Do not under-estimate these emotions and try to remain a grounded and rational investor. Don’t be scared to take profits. I know from experience trading altcoins that it is better to exit a position early and miss out on another 100% price increase than it is to hold through a bear market and take >90% losses. If you go into this bullrun telling yourself you will take profits on the way up, you will have no reason to regret any early sales since you will know that you made a rational trade and not an emotional trade.
submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Prepping for a Financial crisis / hyperinflation.

So what can we do about it? Any ideas are welcome.
It has a lot of "what if's"... It depends how tax and law play out with it.Historically speaking:
  1. -I stock bulk diesel for my cars while following historical averages to buy cheap.
  2. -Rotating food stock
  3. -Extra maintenance items, including the big things like a roof on your home if its coming time. Not joking I have a spare water heater and backup heating options, along with minor parts and filters to fix them. Same with cars and engines, (spark plugs, filters (all different filters), oil, cheap sensors that usually go bad and are only 4-10$ each, 1-2 extra alternator per vehicle, belts, mowing belts, bearings, grease, ... and I've literally had to use everything on that list and reorder.)
  1. -Security, Locks, Alarms, Cameras, people steal.
  2. A deep freezer for instance can stock food you use and buy on sale.
  3. Solar energy and solar heating supplements energy you use anyways
  4. Rainwater can be collected and used rather than buying from a source.
  5. A cooking gadget vs eating out.
  6. Tools and learning to fix things vs hire.
  7. House insulation.-Better insulative windows, and sealing.
  8. Geo-Thermal
  9. Gardening
  10. Bidet on toilet (lol serious though...)
  11. Backup power
  12. Your education can be a huge one, not just for prepping but also in your work.
  13. Things that prevent rot, fire, flood / humidity, or failure. Humidity is a silent killer to many preps. (water sump pumps, dehumidifiers, leak prevention, fire extinguishers / sprinklers, )
submitted by AntiSonOfBitchamajig to preppers [link] [comments]

Bitcoin mentioned around Reddit: you can choose to be paid [your salary] partly/fully in bitcoin, which is the best performing "stock" in 6 of the past 7 years (and could potentially keep performing as the number one for some years). /r/programmingcirclejerk

Bitcoin mentioned around Reddit: you can choose to be paid [your salary] partly/fully in bitcoin, which is the best performing submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

small passive income while browsing the web

If you were on the internet in the late 1990s, you might remember companies like "AllAdvantage" that promised to pay you to browse the web. You could install a program that tracked your browsing and showed you targeted ads at the top of the screen, then "AllAdvantage" would give you a cut of the ad revenue you generated.
These schemes largely disappeared after the dot-com crash. But Brendan Eich, the creator of the JavaScript programming language and cofounder and former CTO of Mozilla, thinks his company Brave Software has found a way to revive that old idea.
What is it?
Brave makes a browser based on Google Chrome that blocks tracking scripts and other technologies that spy on your online activity. As a result, it also blocks many web ads; if you visit any website using the Brave browser, you won’t see any ads. But Brave will give users the option to see ads that Eich says will respect your privacy. The ads will appear as desktop notifications, he says, not as replacements for the ads the Brave browser blocks. So you still won’t see ads on any website, but you might see them on the right lower corner of your screen. If you choose to see these ads, you’ll get 70 percent of the revenue they generate.
Eich hopes Brave can solve two of the web's most vexing problems the privacy and revenue problem by turning the traditional digital advertising model on its head. Today, ad networks pay sites for ad space and web browsers like Brave and Chrome deliver content from those publishers to users. Brave is trying to put the browser in the center of the advertising experience. Instead of paying publishers directly, ad networks would pay Brave, which will pass part of the money to users and keep a cut for itself.
By handling advertising in the browser on your device, Brave says it will be able to target ads without sending your data to the cloud, and protect your privacy. When you interact with an ad on Brave, the browser sends notice to the company's servers, but doesn't include any identifying information. Eich sees four sets of winners: browser makers get paid; users get paid, and get more privacy; advertisers can target pitches without running afoul of European privacy regulations; and publishers can survive in a world where many users are installing ad blockers.
Publishers and ad networks might bristle at the idea of putting browser makers in the middle of their business. But in recent years browsers have taken a more active role in shaping the web, instead of merely displaying a website’s content. Chrome now blocks ads on a small number of sites with particularly egregious advertising practices, while browsers like Firefox and Safari have added privacy protections. Meanwhile, browser plugins are giving users more control over their experience. There are Chrome extensions, for example, that let you change Facebook's color scheme, or change the way images are displayed on Pinterest. And of course there are extensions that block all ads.
Trying to win advertisers and publishers to a new model isn't Brave's only challenge. It also needs users. Eich says Brave has 15 million users and is growing.
Brave will give users a 70 percent cut of its advertising revenue, which Eich estimates could work out to about $10 a month. Brave will pay users with its own bitcoin-style "cryptocurrency” called Basic Attention Tokens or BAT, which has traded for as little as 24 cents over the past 12 months, according to CoinMarketCap. You can exchange the BAT you have received for viewing ads into USD, EUR, GBP, CHF and many more currencies.
The company offers a service through the cryptocurrency exchange Uphold to allow users to change, sell and buy BAT or donate it to publishers, and for publishers to exchange the BAT they receive for dollars. Advertisers like HomeDepot or recent campaigns included brands such as Verizon, Newegg, Chipotle, and PayPal/Honey, in addition to earlier campaigns by Amazon, Harry’s Razors, Intel, CBS, KIND snacks, Logitech, Lenovo, Grubhub, Belkin, Quickbooks, Evernote and some of cryptocurrency related companies, will be able to buy ads either with BAT or with traditional currencies.
Eich says Brave opted to create its own tokens using the Ethereum cryptocurrency platform in part to avoid regulatory requirements, such as verifying users' identifies, that partners like Uphold are better equipped to handle.
Estimated revenue? (depending on the country you live in the revenue can be higher or lower)
I made around 3oo$ so far this year using 3 devices, just for viewing some ads.
5 months so far july is not included if you calculate it down for 1 device, 100$/5months = 20$ a month just for viewing ads, you would need to buy risky stocks worth of 2000$ to get the same amount per month.
can only recommend everyone to try it, not every country has the same number of advertisers so you probably get the most out of it when you live in the USA.
If you are interested here is a quick guide how to set it up to get the max amount out of Brave:
1 Download brave here
2 Activate the reward system (gif link below)Gif link
3 go into the settings an deactivate auto contribution and activate 5 ads per hour (image link below)image link
4 Create an Account on Uphold and connect it with your BraveBrowser.
Now you are good to go and can make some money on something you do anyway.
I hope this helps some folks in the community to make some extra bucks.
edit1:you can find more infos and support here:brave_browser & BATProject or
edit2:the earnings are depenging on the number of devices you are using and were you are living. Best paying countries: United States (69) United Kingdom (39) Canada (36) Australia (35) New Zealand (26) Germany (21) Ireland (21) France (18)( the number next to the country are the companies that are running ads on brave for this particular country, the more companies the more revenue )
you can find a full list with all countries and campaigns here:
edit3:You don't need to browse to a certain website to receive ads, just browse as you are used to, play browser games, watch videos on youtube or do whatever you want.Sometimes Ads appear on the startpage looks like that and after some time on the right lower corner a clickable pop-up appears looks like that->
edit4:If you want to import your bookmarks and settings from your old browser:on the right top corner of the browser is a button -> click it > than on settings > and than you got the option to import bookmarks and settings from your old browser.
If you want to sync brave between devices and for backups:type brave://flags/ into the adressbar and than brave sync into the search bar and acticate itif its enabled it should look like this just click on sync ->
here is a guide ->
edit5: Don't keep your BAT from free token grants to long in your browser, always send your bat to an external wallet or exchange like uphold, only tokens from free token grants have an expire date if they dont get used they go back to the bat pool. you can find more infos about this here ->
submitted by OnlyReveal6 to beermoneyglobal [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Beautyon on Twitter: World-wide, stock market correcting, the number of Bitcoin remains exactly the same. Bitcoin is a natural constant outside crony capitalism.

Beautyon on Twitter: World-wide, stock market correcting, the number of Bitcoin remains exactly the same. Bitcoin is a natural constant outside crony capitalism. submitted by imoga to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Drops 50% in Epic Two-Day Tumble

submitted by ChickenTeriyakiBoy1 to business [link] [comments]

Reasons why the market will go up monday? Despite millions unemployed?

I am wondering the reasons you have to believe the SM will go up on Monday. I feel like Jerome Powell is simply manipulating the markets. There would have been a huge crash on Monday without his announcement. What are the reason reasons that the market should be going up? I can only think of government actions. Maybe minor coronavirus positives, but the death count is rising in America... its only stagnating in NYC, which is what everyone seems to reference.
submitted by TheLoneProspector to investing [link] [comments]

Flatten the Curve. #18. The current cold war between China and America explained. And how China was behind the 2008 Wall Street financial Crash. World War 3 is coming.

China, the USA, and the Afghanistan war are linked. And in order to get here, we will start there.
9-11 happened. Most of the planet mistakenly understood terrorists had struck a blow against Freedom and Capitalism and Democracy. It was time to invade Afghanistan. Yet all of the terrorists were linked to Saudi Arabia and not Afghanistan, that didn't make sense either. Yet they invaded to find Bin Laden, an ex CIA asset against the Soviet Union and it's subjugation of Afghanistan. The land in the middle of nowhere in relation to North America and the West. It was barren. A backwater without any strategic importance or natural resources.
Or was there?
The survey for rare earth elements was only made possible by the 2001 U.S. invasion, with work beginning in 2004. Mirzad says the Russians had already done significant surveying work during their military occupation of the country in the 1980s. Mirzad also toes the line for U.S. corporations, arguing, “The Afghan government should not touch the mining business. We have to give enough information to potential investors.”
Rare Earth Elements. The elements that make the information age possible. People could understand the First Gulf War and the Geopolitical importance of oil. That was easy, but it still didn't sound morally just to have a war for oil. It was too imperialist and so they fell in line and supported a war for Kuwaiti freedom instead, despite the obvious and public manipulation at the UN by Nayirah.
This is some of her testimony to the Human Rights Council.
While I was there, I saw the Iraqi soldiers come into the hospital with guns. They took the babies out of the incubators, took the incubators and left the children to die on the cold floor. It was horrifying. I could not help but think of my nephew who was born premature and might have died that day as well. After I left the hospital, some of my friends and I distributed flyers condemning the Iraqi invasion until we were warned we might be killed if the Iraqis saw us.
The Iraqis have destroyed everything in Kuwait. They stripped the supermarkets of food, the pharmacies of medicine, the factories of medical supplies, ransacked their houses and tortured neighbors and friends.
There was only one problem. She was the daughter of Saud Al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States. Furthermore, it was revealed that her testimony was organized as part of the Citizens for a Free Kuwait public relations campaign, which was run by the American public relations firm Hill & Knowlton for the Kuwaiti government (fun fact, Hill & Knowlton also have extensive ties with Bill Gates).
So the public was aghast at her testimony and supported the war against the mainly Soviet backed, but also American supported and Soviet backed Saddam Hussein, in his war against Iran, after the Iranians refused to Ally with American interests after the Islamic Revolution.
But that was oil, this was Rare Earth Elements. There was a reason the war was called, Operation Enduring Freedom. This natural resource was far more important in the long run. You couldn't have a security surveillance apparatus without it. And what was supposed to be a war on terror was in actuality a territorial occupation for resources.
Sleeping Dragon China is next, and where there's smoke, there's fire.
Let's go point form for clarity.
• China entered the rare earth market in the mid-1980s, at a time when the US was the major producer. But China soon caught up and became the production leader for rare earths. Its heavily state-supported strategy was aimed at dominating the global rare earth industry.
• 1989 Beijing’s Tiananmen Square spring. The U.S. government suspends military sales to Beijing and freezes relations.
• 1997. Clinton secures the release of Wei and Tiananmen Square protester Wang Dan. Beijing deports both dissidents to the United States. (If you don't understand these two were CIA assets working in China, you need to accept that not everything will be published. America wouldn't care about two political activists, but why would care about two intelligence operatives).
• March 1996. Taiwan’s First Free Presidential Vote.
• May 1999. America "accidently" bombs the Belgrade Chinese Embassy.
• 2002 Price competitiveness was hard for the USA to achieve due to low to non-existent Chinese environmental standards; as a result, the US finally stopped its rare earth production.
• October 2000. U.S. President Bill Clinton signs the U.S.-China Relations Act. China's take over of the market share in rare earth elements starts to increase.
• October 2001. Afghanistan war Enduring Freedom started to secure rare earth elements (Haven't you ever wondered how they could mobilize and invade so quickly? The military was already prepared).
• 2005. China establishes a monopoly on global production by keeping mineral prices low and then panics markets by introducing export quotas to raise prices by limiting supply.
• Rare Earth Elements. Prices go into the stratosphere (for example, dysprosium prices do a bitcoin, rocketing from $118/kg to $2,262/kg between 2008 and 2011).
• In a September 2005. Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick initiates a strategic dialogue with China. This was presented as dialog to acknowledge China's emergence as a Superpower (which China probably insisted on), but it was about rare earth elements market price.
• October 2006. China allows North Korea to conduct its first nuclear test, China serves as a mediator to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table with the USA.
• September 2006. American housing prices start to fall.
(At some point after this, secret negotiations must have become increasingly hostile).
• March 2007. China Increases Military Spending. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney says China’s military buildup is “not consistent” with the country’s stated goal of a “peaceful rise.”
• Mid-2005 and mid-2006. China bought between $100b and $250 billion of US housing debt between mid-2005 and mid-2006. This debt was bought using the same financial instruments that caused the financial collapse.
• 2006. Housing prices started to fall for the first time in decades.
• Mid-2006 and mid-2007. China likely added another $390b to its reserves. "At the same time, if China stopped buying -- especially now, when the private market is clogged up -- US financial markets would really seize up." Council on Foreign Relations-2007 August
• February 27, 2007. Stock markets in China and the U.S. fell by the most since 2003. Investors leave the money market and flock to Government backed Treasury Bills.
I've never seen it like this before,'' said Jim Galluzzo, who began trading short-maturity Treasuries 20 years ago and now trades bills at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.Bills right now are trading like dot-coms.''
We had clients asking to be pulled out of money market funds and wanting to get into Treasuries,'' said Henley Smith, fixed-income manager in New York at Castleton Partners, which oversees about $150 million in bonds.People are buying T-bills because you know exactly what's in it.''
• February 13, 2008. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 was enacted, which included a tax rebate. The total cost of this bill was projected at $152 billion for 2008. A December 2009 study found that only about one-third of the tax rebate was spent, providing only a modest amount of stimulus.
• September 2008. China Becomes Largest U.S. Foreign Creditor at 600 billion dollars.
• 2010. China’s market power peaked in when it reached a market share of around 97% of all rare earth mineral production. Outside of China, there were almost no other producers left.
Outside of China, the US is the second largest consumer of rare earths in the world behind Japan.
About 60% of US rare earth imports are used as catalysts for petroleum refining, making it the country’s major consumer of rare earths.
The US military also depends on rare earths. Many of the most advanced US weapon systems, including smart bombs, unmanned drones, cruise missiles, laser targeting, radar systems and the Joint Strike Fighter programme rely on rare earths. Against this background, the US Department of Defense (DoD) stated that “reliable access to the necessary material is a bedrock requirement for DOD”
• 2010. A trade dispute arose when the Chinese government reduced its export quotas by 40% in 2010, sending the rare earths prices in the markets outside China soaring. The government argued that the quotas were necessary to protect the environment.
• August 2010. China Becomes World’s Second-Largest Economy.
• November 2011. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton outlines a U.S. “pivot” to Asia. Clinton’s call for “increased investment—diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise—in the Asia-Pacific region” is seen as a move to counter China’s growing clout.
• December 2011. U.S. President Barack Obama announces the United States and eight other nations have reached an agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership later announces plans to deploy 2,500 marines in Australia, prompting criticism from Beijing.
• November 2012. China’s New Leadership. Xi Jinping replaces Hu Jintao as president, Communist Party general secretary, and chairman of the Central Military Commission. Xi delivers a series of speeches on the “rejuvenation” of China.
• June 2013. U.S. President Barack Obama hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping for a “shirt-sleeves summit”
• May 19, 2014. A U.S. court indicts five Chinese hackers, allegedly with ties to China’s People’s Liberation Army, on charges of stealing trade technology from U.S. companies.
• November 12, 2014. Joint Climate Announcement. Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping issue a joint statement on climate change, pledging to reduce carbon emissions. (which very conveniently allows the quotas to fall and save pride for Xi).
• 2015. China drops the export quotas because in 2014, the WTO ruled against China.
• May 30, 2015 U.S. Warns China Over South China Sea. (China is trying to expand it's buffer zone to build a defense for the coming war).
• January 2016. The government to abolish the one-child policy, now allowing all families to have two children.
• February 9, 2017. Trump Affirms One China Policy After Raising Doubts.
• April 6 – 7, 2017. Trump Hosts Xi at Mar-a-Lago. Beijing and Washington to expand trade of products and services like beef, poultry, and electronic payments, though the countries do not address more contentious trade issues including aluminum, car parts, and steel.
• November 2017. President Xi meets with President Trump in another high profile summit.
• March 22, 2018. Trump Tariffs Target China. The White House alleges Chinese theft of U.S. technology and intellectual property. Coming on the heels of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the measures target goods including clothing, shoes, and electronics and restrict some Chinese investment in the United States.
• July 6, 2018 U.S.-China Trade War Escalates.
• September 2018. Modifications led to the exclusion of rare earths from the final list of products and they consequently were not subject to import tariffs imposed by the US government in September 2018.
• October 4, 2018. Pence Speech Signals Hard-Line Approach. He condemns what he calls growing Chinese military aggression, especially in the South China Sea, criticizes increased censorship and religious persecution by the Chinese government, and accuses China of stealing American intellectual property and interfering in U.S. elections.
• December 1, 2018. Canada Arrests Huawei Executive.
• March 6, 2019. Huawei Sues the United States.
• March 27 2019. India and the US signed an agreement to "strengthen bilateral security and civil nuclear cooperation" including the construction of six American nuclear reactors in India
• May 10, 2019. Trade War Intensifies.
• August 5, 2019. U.S. Labels China a Currency Manipulator.
• November 27, 2019. Trump Signs Bill Supporting Hong Kong Protesters. Chinese officials condemn the move, impose sanctions on several U.S.-based organizations, and suspend U.S. warship visits to Hong Kong.
• January 15, 2020. ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Signed. But the agreement maintains most tariffs and does not mention the Chinese government’s extensive subsidies. Days before the signing, the United States dropped its designation of China as a currency manipulator.
• January 31, 2020. Tensions Soar Amid Coronavirus Pandemic.
• March 18, 2020. China Expels American Journalists. The Chinese government announces it will expel at least thirteen journalists from three U.S. newspapers—the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post—whose press credentials are set to expire in 2020. Beijing also demands that those outlets, as well as TIME and Voice of America, share information with the government about their operations in China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry says the moves are in response to the U.S. government’s decision earlier in the year to limit the number of Chinese journalists from five state-run media outlets in the United States to 100, down from 160, and designate those outlets as foreign missions.
And here we are. You may have noticed the Rare Earth Elements and the inclusion of Environmental Standards. Yes these are key to understanding the Geopolitical reality and importance of these events. There's a reason the one child policy stopped. Troop additions.
I believe our current political reality started at Tiananmen square. The protests were an American sponsored attempt at regime change after the failure to convince them to leave totalitarian communism and join a greater political framework.
Do I have proof? Yes.
China, as far as I'm concerned, was responsible for the 2008 economic crisis. The Rare Earth Elements were an attempt to weaken the States and strengthen themselves simultaneously. This stranglehold either forced America to trade with China, or the trade was an American Trojan horse to eventually collapse their economy and cause a revolution after Tiananmen Square failed. Does my second proposal sound far fetched? Didn't the economy just shut down in response to the epidemic? Aren't both sides blaming the other? At this POINT, the epidemic seems to be overstated doesn’t it? Don't the casualties tend to the elder demographic and those already weakened by a primary disease?
Exactly the kinds who wouldn't fight in a war.
Does this change some of my views on the possibility of upcoming catastrophes and reasons for certain events? No. This is Chess, and there are obvious moves in chess, hidden moves in chess, but the best moves involve peices which can be utilized in different ways if the board calls for it.
Is all what it seems? No.
I definitely changed a few previously held beliefs prior to today, and I would caution you in advance that you will find some previously held convictions challenged.
After uncovering what I did today, I would also strongly suggest reading information cautiously. This is all merely a culmination of ending the cold war, and once I have events laid out, you will see it as well.
At this moment, the end analysis is a war will start in the near future. This will be mainly for a few reasons, preemptive resource control for water and crops, population reduction can be achieved since we have too many people, not enough jobs, and upcoming resource scarcity.
Did you notice my omission of rare earth elements? This is because of Afghanistan. I would wager China or Russia is somehow supporting the continued resistance through Iran. But events are now accelerating with China because the western collation has already begun to build up their mines and start production.
Do you remember when Trump made a "joke" about buying Greenland? Yeah. It turns out that Greenland has one of the largest rare earth mineral deposits on the planet.
Take care. Be safe. Stay aware and be prepared.
This message not brought to you by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Elon Musk, Blackrock, Vangaurd, the Rockefeller Foundation, Rand Corporation, DARPA, Rothschilds, Agenda 21, Agenda 30, and ID 2020.
submitted by biggreekgeek to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Have been a true believer for a while, think it's time to manage expectations.

Now that I’m seeing bitcoin track in tandem with the S&P during serious inflationary times it doesn’t seem to be fulfilling it’s purpose as a hedge against the FIAT monetary system.
The Zeitgeist for bitcoin was that when the dollar eventually fails, or is shaken, the world will move in droves to bitcoin in order to escape to a deflationary lifeboat in inflationary times. As a thought experiment, let’s take for granted that the average citizen is not going to have the financial + technological literacy and/or liquid assets to be able to convert dollars into either bitcoin or gold in any serious amount in the middle of a financial crisis.
Let’s also take for granted that neither can be used with ease as a means of exchange for goods and services in supermarkets and shops etc in the near future, thus dis-incentivising them from doing so even if they were capable of doing so (Yes I am aware of rare use cases for both, I’m talking in general, today).
That leaves us with only those who are financially savvy/have brokers and/or central banks, hedge funds and large financial institutions left who are left looking for said lifeboat. They will be moving sums of money around orders of magnitude greater than will ever be put into crypto currency at current adoption rates.

Given that bitcoin adoption is sparse and volatility high it can not be considered a predictable, reliable store of wealth at this point in time. It might well prove to be, but governments, brokers and hedge funds don’t invest in financial instruments that have the potential to explode in value when the aim is to divest from volatility. They just want to protect their assets for long enough to weather the storm. If this is the case, it is reasonable to presume that governments, brokers and financial institutions will do what always happens in times of crisis; fall back on safe, tried-and-true investment strategies, namely: buying gold.
Bitcoin could very well be worth ten times what it is now in a decades time. Maybe a different crypto will emerge and take it’s place. It could well “moon” in the next year. But I think this will be entirely down to the fact that it is acting as a speculative asset and not fulfilling it’s use case as evidenced by it’s first field test during an economic crisis since it’s inception. The idea that the world economy is going to jump on to the blockchain in the short term if we see a dollar fall in value doesn’t seem like a feasible response.
There might be big pumps and dumps, but I don’t think there will be widespread institutional and societal adoption any time soon. Given that this is often touted as the reason it will be worth so much in the future, given that it is going to disproven if there is a serious crash in the medium term and the reaction is a flight to gold not bitcoin and given that it’s value is currently a function of it being treated as a speculative instrument we could very well see bitcoin plummet in value along with the dollar. If bitcoin isn’t functioning as a currency, it is only functioning as a store of value until adoption or innovation bridges the gap.
Maybe this crash will come too prematurely for bitcoin to capitalise on it’s potential. If it can’t be seen to better this use case when compared to gold by institutions who can’t afford to gamble on the outcome, it will lose to gold. If it loses to gold, it could collapse having been shown incapable of meeting any of it’s purported functions. It will be seen as neither a store of value, a safe heaven in inflationary times nor a means of exchange. If that happens, the only value it will have is the belief that it can overcome these obstacles at some point and do so before a more agile competitor takes it’s place or it’s reputation is damaged irreparably.
I believe in crypto, I don’t think it’s tulip mania. But I do think this culture of pumping your life savings into it on the ASSUMPTION that it is going to go up if there is a crash is short sighted and wishful thinking. If I am wrong I will be delighted to see a world where central banks are replaced by a more democratic and equitable monetary system. I just don’t see how it can happen for a long time and think the value of BTC will fall significantly in the meantime, long before people currently invested in it can wait before they have to cash out and put their savings to work.
submitted by VeterinarySurgeonK9 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Highly credible anonymous analyst offers startling price prediction: BTC cannot go down to $5300 unless it goes below $6400.

Highly credible anonymous analyst offers startling price prediction: BTC cannot go down to $5300 unless it goes below $6400. submitted by jstolfi to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Deep fundamental reasons behind all conflicts with Tezos Foundation

Let's first take a look at two core ideas behind Tezos protocol:
  1. In Bitcoin protocol, there are those who create blocks (miners) and users. Those are two fundamentally different groups. As a result of that they do have fundamentally different interests. When those interests are aligned, it's all work very well. However, sometimes those interests might get misaligned. Miners might want one set of changes in the protocol while users might want another set of changes. Tezos procotol solves this problem via proof of stake's baking mechanism by allowing users of XTZ to become block creators (like miners in Bitcoin protocol). Users/holders of XTZ and block creators are now fundamentally the same group and therefore there is no interest misalignment. Moreover, as a consequence of choosing proof of stake over proof of work, almost anyone can become a baker at low cost. Of course, there is a minimum requirement but it can be easily reduced through voting if price XTZ goes too high;
  2. Although per (1) problem of misalignment between users and miners solved, Tezos protocol make one step further. Namely, there is self-amending mechanisms in protocol. Through of the set of voting rounds, attached bounties (via dillution), there is a deterministic path to resolve disputes in upgrading Tezos protocol. Nobody knows the future, nobody knows how protocol should look like after 5-10-20 years. That's why it's very important to have self-amending procedure. Without deterministic path to protocol upgrade, you will have fork-wars like in Bitcoin. As a result of these fork-wars, you now have Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV. Also, with built-in bounties via dillution, Tezos protocol guarantees funding for its further development;
There is third core idea behind Tezos protocol. Namely, formal verification friendly, low-level and explicit smart contract language - Michelson. While it's very important feature, it's not relevant for this discussion.
Now imagine you are going back in time when Tezos protocol isn't implemented yet, only draft whitepaper. How would you bring it to life if you were original author?
If there were no crypto-currencies, then all you have to do is to take time and implement minimum viable product (MVP) on your own. May be you might do it with co-founder but it's not really necessary for releasing the first version of protocol in absence of any competition.
However, the field was already crowded and time works against you. It would be necessary for project's survival to be as fast as possible in such dynamic field. You need to raise funds to hire dozen of strong programmers to implement Tezos protocol and on top of that to fund development of ecosystem in Tezos network. Namely, wallets, higher-level languages on top of low-level Michelson, education materials for future smart contract writers, new projects similar to 0x, Maker, Compound, Cryptokitties etc.
Now, I would like you to make a pause and think what is Tezos protocol. It tries to align incentives of parties using game-theoretic constructs! And now, I would like you to make second pause and think what crypto-currencies are all about in broader sense. Crypto-currencies are about eliminating centralization and unnecessary middle-mans. One of the biggest middle-mans is governments and their legal system.
People who are in the space for long time should know how much crypto-currencies influenced by Austrian School of Economics (read Hayek's book "Denationalization Of Money" (1976) and early Satoshi Nakamoto's posts).
With that in mind (spirit behind Tezos and crypto-currencies in general), how would you fund development of Tezos protocol and later its initial ecosystem?
The correct answer is to setup decentralized autonomus organization (DAO). Initial DAO on Ethereum protocol since you don't have any Tezos protocol implementations (remember, we are still back in time!).
This DAO will be used to develop Tezos protocol itself and leverage power of smart contracts to correctly align incentives for development of Tezos protocol. Namely, backers of this DAO would get ERC20 token representing voting and governance power. For example, let's say founders raised 250M USD worth in ETH and all of these money will be locked in smart contract. Only backers can unlock funds from smart contract by tranches as Tezos protocol developers making progress. It would be similar to traditional world - seed round, round A, round B etc. When Tezos mainnet goes live, backers would receive proportional amount of XTZ as their ERC20 voting tokens on Ethereum. Since that initial DAO would still have tons of ETH locked by the time Tezos mainnet released, those proceeds will be used to fund wallet developers, high-language developers, and so on (via voting by backers of course).
In this scenario, I would envision that the first big project after Tezos mainnet launched would be to build trustless, decentralized bridge between Tezos blockchain and Ethereum blockchain. Simply, because it would be good to migrate intial DAO and its ETH funds into Tezos blockchain.
There are only two downsides with this approach:
  1. You can't raise funds in Bitcoin but who cares if it's 100M or even 50M (still huge amount of money);
  2. Many people in crypto-space will make fun of you because you just setup DAO on Ethereum while developing Ethereum competitor;
Neither of these two downsides is important. Ultimate upside is that backers has direct control over how funds are spent because they would be the only ones who can unlock funds by voting for proposals.
On meta-level, you would have beautiful symmetry. Namely, you develop Tezos protocol and its ecosystem, using the similar ideas and spirit as Tezos protocol itself!
But we all know that it was never happened!
We all know drama with Gevers who tried to capture power at Tezos Foundation. We all know that there is no RPC command in Tezos github to vote out Tezos Foundation members ;) We all know that we are not in control of Tezos Foundation. Tezos Foundation is a swiss non-profit organization with its own board and we are not part of it. Tezos Foundation is govern under Swiss law and most of you are not even Swiss citizens.
Here is the question why Breitmans suddently decided to throw away all fundamental principles behind crypto-currencies and just went all-in with traditional world? Why we all got stuck with our own mini-Washington, namely Tezos Foundation? There is one reason why Breitmans decided to throw away all their principles and stick with this strange scheme involving Swiss foundations.
The reason is ... socialism. You might think I'm joking but stay with me. There were roaring 1920s and following 1929 stock market crash (by the way that was actually caused by government creating credit bubble). Republican (but still a socialist) Herbert Hoover created depression from 1929 crash. Franklin Roosevelt made this depression truly great! He imposed price-controls and outright gold confiscation (check "Executive Order 6102"). One of his most terrible pieces of paternalistic socialist legislation was "Securities Act of 1933". And this is the reason why Breitmans tried so hard escape iron hand of Roosevelt's zombie.
The same month as Tezos fundraiser, SEC issued statement about the most famous Ethereum DAO:
Basically, they tried to say that DAO violated their 1933 Securities Act (aka Roosevelt zombie). I'm not claiming that Breitmans anticipated this exact SEC statement about Ethereum DAO. All I'm saying that they are smart enough to understand that SEC might come after them as well. It doesn't matter if SEC had right to do so. It doesn't matter that XTZ is not security at all. Only people outside of hardcore old school crypto-community would believe in such non-sense as rights. The truth is that any government is essentially an army which controls a territory and they (not you!) decide what they think is right or wrong.
Breitmans knew that SEC might chase them with bloody machete, so they decided to play traditional game which many played when Switzerland still had numbered accounts. Namely, using Switzerland as old-style traditional escape from Roosevelt zombies.
Unfortunately, for them they got in hands of people who knew too well how actually Swiss foundations work. We all remember how Gevers tried to exploit Swiss law about foundations to seize control over foundation's assets. Now we have new drama. But fundamentally, it's all because Breitmans choose Swiss law over Ethereum smart-contracts.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not blaming Breitmans. I really think that their fear of Roosevelt zombie with bloody machete led them to setup weird foundation in Switzerland. In normal circumstances, I don't see any rational reason not to setup DAO as I described above.
Zooming out, on the bigger scale, you might see that these two worlds (i.e. traditional government law and crypto) are not compatible at all. You just can't have both of two worlds.
For the same reason, I don't believe in STOs. It's a nice toy, a temporary thing to bootstrap your Defi ecosystem in Tezos but nothing more than that.
Every STO, at some point, rely on some centralized entity which is controlled by law of some jurisdiction. Once government (aka army which control territories and make visibility of its own legitimacy via elections and passing laws) decides that your STO is not compliant, all these STO tokens will be worthless overnight. More on this in my another long post:
Regardless of what's happen with Tezos Foundation, I strongly believe that Tezos protocol will thrive. Mainnet went life and the jinn that can't be put back in the bottle!
Update: Many here criticized my position regarding STOs. That's partly my fault with being too lax with terminology (once I wrote big post, I didn't have much energy to clarify on STOs in the end). By STO, I mean any tokens backed by regulated assets (again, I know it's lax definition). I assumed almost everyone here is for open, borderless finance. As a result of that, I assumed that you want to make these tokens available for everyone and that's why one day government will put pressure on such STO issuers to freeze tokens. However, it's turned out that some people excited for STOs being fully regulated from the start and therefore these tokens wouldn't be available for everyone. Basically, some people see main benefits of STOs as being pro-actively censorship friendly. In other words, they want to move all compliance on blockchain. Whereas, I see very existence of government regulations as root of all problems. Having said that, I'm not against STOs but I'm not very excited about them either. You have to make great mental leap to understand that fully-regulated STOs fundamentally solving wrong problem. You have to build fully censorship resistant technology, not fully censorship friendly. No matter how big market for STOs, it's still several orders of magnitude smaller than potential world of fully-inclusive finance without any borders whatsoever. Tezos is very well equipped for this ambitious task especially with new privacy features coming. Remember, Satoshi Nakamoto didn't ask permission from governments before releasing Bitcoin.
submitted by omgcoin to tezos [link] [comments]

WHAT!!! BITCOIN LISTED ON STOCK EXCHANGE!!!!! Programmer explains Troubles for Bitcoin as Goldman Issues Serious Stock Market Warning Bitcoin 870 Day Downtrend... Bitcoin Mining Firm Northern Data Slams ‘Trolls’ After Stock Drops 40% BITCOIN WILL PUMP HERE!! Best Altcoin to buy RIGHT NOW! Stock Market & Crypto, News & Analysis

Mnuchin says Treasury will ensure bitcoin doesn't become 'Swiss-numbered bank accounts' Published Thu, Jul 18 2019 7:57 AM EDT Updated Thu, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. The long-awaited bitcoin ETF has hit yet another wall, and at this point, some expect a central bank cryptocurrency or tethered coin to come sooner. Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Bitcoin plunged 70% to a low of $3,136 in December 2018. and now trades just below $8,000. Source: Forbes. The 'days are numbered' for Google and Facebook The company's stock fell nearly Musk, a pioneer in the payments industry, having founded PayPal Holdings, PYPL, +1.45% added that the days of paper money are numbered and digital currencies could offer a more efficient solution With Bitcoin's price at $, you'd need bitcoins to be a Bitcoin millionaire in dollars. Since there are BTC in circulation, there are a maximum of people holding bitcoins. In all likelihood, the number is much lower than that and probably around 30,000-60,000 people with more than $1 million worth of bitcoins.

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Bitcoin Logo Stock Motion Graphics - Duration: 0:11. Motion Array 1,330 views. 0:11. stock footage abstract animation of bitcoin currency sign in digital cyberspace - Duration: 0:17. BITCOIN STOCK TO FLOW HINTS TO BULL CYCLE BULLISH AS BTC PRICE MOMENTS AWAY FROM MOVE! - Duration: 8:49. Crypto Capital Venture 3,985 views. 8:49. Bitcoin rose alongside the S&P 500, breaking towards its technical resistance level of $9,400. But heading into the new week, the cryptocurrency is facing new challenges in the form of corporate ... Based on Technical Analysis the price of Bitcoin trades below a significant 870 day downtrendline. ... WOW!! EURO COLLAPSING!!!! Days numbered, Bitcoin Halving, Africa ... Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow ... CAN BITCOIN PUMP TO $12k?! Best Altcoin to buy RIGHT NOW! Today i discuss Stock Market News, Crypto News, as well as conducting some BTC Bitcoin Price Analysis, Eth Price Analysis, DOWJ Price ...

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